How the United States and China Can Nimbly Escape the Inevitable Thucydides Trap

Asia Times•Published: Sep 25, 2026 06:49 PM IST

Chinese President Xi Jinping recently emphasized that the 'Thucydides Trap'—the historical tendency for conflict between rising and established powers—is not inevitable for US-China relations. While the summit did not resolve deep-seated disputes over trade and technology, it established a framework for both nations to pursue their respective national ambitions without viewing the other as an existential threat.

Structural Rivalry: The core challenge remains managing the competition between China’s rapid industrial and technological rise and the United States' commitment to maintaining its global leadership.
Technological Leverage: China has emerged as a dominant force in sectors like electric vehicles, renewable energy, and critical mineral supply chains, while the US maintains superiority in AI, semiconductors, and capital markets.
AI Cooperation: Both leaders identified artificial intelligence as a critical area for shared responsibility, emphasizing the need for human control and global safety standards.

The Context & Background

Historical precedents, such as the 1868 Burlingame mission, demonstrate that diplomatic goodwill is fragile and often undermined by domestic political pressures. The long-term success of this current diplomatic effort depends on whether both nations can build durable institutions to manage their structural competition effectively.

Why it matters:The relationship between the US and China is the most consequential geopolitical dynamic of the 21st century. Successfully navigating this rivalry is essential to preventing global conflict and ensuring stability in the international economy, particularly as both nations race to lead in transformative technologies like artificial intelligence.

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